Can Social Media Decide?

Rahman Mohamed

From Day 1 there are Polls.  CBC reported that the writ was dropped on August 2 to start a 78 day/11 week federal campaign, election date set on 1 January 2015 for October 19.  On 28 July the NDP and Conservatives both held one-third of support.  Today the question is whether or not Polls can predict

Polls are statistics, aka, numerical measurements based on opinions.  Market research companies, organizations that send out surveys to learn about society’s opinion and impression of goods and services conduct research on political support.  This is done in the same manner as research about the best TV.  They send out surveys to their members, those who’ve agreed to receive surveys and answer them, and ask for their opinion.  Then, based on various classification (age, gender, occupation, income, education, location, etc.) and mathematical formulas hypothetical numbers about a population are created.  Based on the surveys answered by the members of the survey company, not all Canadians, mathematical estimates of candidates’ support is reported.  The nightly Nanos Poll has shown a 3-way race that’s been changing in direction.  On 11 September Liberals and Conservatives were tied at 31%, NDP one point down at 30%.

Political parties have supporters and receive donations from Canadians that are partially reimbursed to Canadians as charitable donations.  Supporters are members of the public who willingly express their loyalty to a political party.  According to second quarterly statements (June 2015) issued by Elections Canada the Conservatives have the highest number contributions.  With over $7.381 million the Conservatives lead the race with more than the NDP and Liberals combined.  The Green Party is the last national party in amount of funds.

On the other hand, the NDP lead with over 48,000 contributors.  The Conservatives are a close second with 45,532 contributors.  Liberals have 32,789 contributors while the Green Party has recruited 10,824.  But in today’s society social media has begun to play a large role.

From the last count followers of @Pontifex, Pope Francis’ English account has risen to 7.05 million.  He’s second to @DalaiLama who’s reached 11.8 million*.

They might not be in the millions but leaders of Canada’s national parties have Followers too.